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Land trusts can promote resilience and help priority species, habitats and resources weather the effects of climate change.
Not only are climate change impacts difficult to predict, but even the causes of climate change — carbon dioxide and methane emissions — are variable, leading to uncertainties in impact scenario projections.
Farming Success in an Uncertain Climate provides an overview of some of the challenges anticipated to affect farms over the next century while also providing solutions that can be applied today. The resource is directed to a New York State audience, but its solutions are widely applicable.
NOAA’s Marshes on the Move provides a basic understanding of parameters, uncertainties, and appropriate uses of model results depicting potential future impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetlands.
Summary of trends and predictions for the future.
Scenario planning is used to develop long-term plans that are resilient under a variety of potential future conditions or scenarios. Planners consider a range of scenarios, and then select the plan that is most robust across several or all scenarios.
To respond to change and enhance the efficacy of existing conservation efforts land trusts are increasingly working to anticipate uncertainty and incorporate flexible planning tools such as scenario planning and adaptive management into their stewardship plans.